The third-quarter earnings season handed the jewelry and watch trade two distinct storylines this week: a soft print from the largest luxury group, and a potential reshaping of who owns the diamond supply chain.

LVMH Q3: a miss, with a resilient corner

LVMH reported third-quarter results on October 12. Group organic sales rose 1% to 18.5 billion euros, against the 1.3% analysts expected. The weakness was concentrated in the core: fashion and leather fell 5%, well short of the 1.8% decline the street had modeled. A near-three-times miss on the group's largest and most profitable division is the data point that moved sentiment.

The watches-and-jewelry division held up better in relative terms, but it was not immune. LVMH's own watches and jewelry growth slowed to 6% in the quarter from 9% in the first half. That deceleration matters because it shows the pressure reaching even the segment that had been carrying the group through the downturn. Richemont, by contrast, has been more resilient, with Cartier growing above 12%. The gap between a decelerating 6% at LVMH and a 12%-plus Cartier is the clearest read on which jewelry house is executing better in this environment. I set the broader context in the week's market wrap.

Richemont and Signet circle De Beers

The structural story broke on October 15: Richemont and Signet Jewelers are reportedly in talks to join a consortium bidding for De Beers. The potential involvement of both a European watch-and-jewelry group and the largest specialty jewelry retailer in the United States would mark a shift toward trade ownership of the rough pipeline, rather than control by a mining major.

The sale process has been running for months. Anglo American's CEO said on July 30 that the De Beers sale is advancing and in the final phases. At the same time, Duncan Wanblad shot down reports that Anglo had identified a front-runner, telling reporters the company is not exclusive with any consortium. Anglo is pursuing a private sale for De Beers rather than a public market listing or IPO. The emergence of Richemont and Signet as potential bidders fits that private-sale structure and signals that strategic buyers, not just financial ones, are at the table.

The timing of the De Beers process overlaps with a producer under real financial strain. De Beers recorded an underlying EBITDA loss of 113 million dollars in the first half of 2026, narrower than the 189 million dollar loss a year earlier but a loss all the same, with falling rough prices doing the damage and cost cuts stemming it. Its next sale, Sight 9, runs October 26 to 30. A buyer stepping in now would be taking on an asset that is cheaper than it was but still bleeding, which is precisely the kind of distressed timing that draws strategic rather than financial bidders.

For the diamond trade, the identity of the eventual owner carries real weight. A consortium that includes a major jeweler and a major retailer has a direct commercial interest in healthy finished-jewelry demand, which could influence how aggressively rough is priced out of the box. That is a different incentive than a diversified miner managing the asset for its own margin. The context for that pricing question sits in the recovering polished market I covered in the diamond recap.

The trade-show calendar fills in

Away from the boardroom, the physical trade is busy this week. JIS Fall runs October 16 to 19 at the Miami Beach Convention Center, and the IWJG New York Show follows on October 19 and 20 at the TWA Hotel at JFK Airport. The back-to-back scheduling keeps dealers moving from a broad retail-oriented show in Miami to a dedicated watch-and-jewelry dealer event in New York within days, a cadence that gives the secondary market a live read on inventory and pricing right as Q3 earnings land.

The week in balance

Put the pieces together and the industry picture is mixed but legible. The largest luxury group missed, with its watches-and-jewelry engine cooling from 9% to 6%, while Richemont's Cartier keeps compounding above 12%. Ownership of the single most important rough supplier is in play, with trade buyers now reportedly circling. And the show calendar is full, giving dealers a real-time pulse. The question that ties them together is whether trade ownership of De Beers, if it happens, ends up stabilizing rough pricing for the retailers who sell the finished goods, or simply changes whose margin the pipeline is managed to protect.