Swiss Watch Exports Stall in March, Q1 Growth Minimal

The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry reported CHF 6.2 billion in exports for Q1 2026, a 1.4% increase over Q1 2025, but March 2026 alone fell 1.0% month-over-month. Full-year 2025 ended down 1.7% at CHF 25.6 billion, and the first quarter offered little relief. The United States accounted for 17% of total exports, while China dropped 12.1% and Hong Kong declined 6.5%, underscoring persistent softness in Asia.

November 2025 remains the low-water mark: U.S. exports plummeted 52% that month when tariffs on Swiss goods spiked to 39% in August before being reduced to 15% mid-November. February 2026 saw Patek Philippe reduce U.S. retail prices up to 8% following tariff relief, a rare deflationary move that dealers noted improved turnover on entry-level Calatravas and annual calendars.

Watches and Wonders Geneva ran April 14-20 with 66 exhibiting brands. Patek Philippe centered its booth on the Nautilus 50th anniversary, launching three new references including a perpetual calendar variant. Rolex debuted the Land-Dweller with an updated movement, while gold models across all major brands reflected the sharp rise in spot prices over the past year.

Dealers should monitor U.S. demand in Q2 2026 closely; tariff volatility has created year-over-year comparisons that obscure underlying consumer appetite.

Gold Tests $4,577 Before Rebounding to $4,642, Central Banks Add 190 Tonnes Per Quarter

Spot gold fell to $4,577/oz on April 28, down $125 from the prior session and marking a three-week low. The metal recovered $85 by April 30, closing at $4,642 at 9am Eastern Time and reaching $4,653.69 end-of-day, a 2.24% single-day gain. The swing came as 10-year Treasury yields held between 4.3% and 4.4%, with the CME FedWatch tool showing 99.5% probability that the Federal Reserve would hold rates at 3.50-3.75% during the April 30 FOMC meeting.

Gold remains 17% below its January 29 all-time high of $5,595.42. JPMorgan forecasts $5,000/oz by Q4 2026, rising to $5,400 by Q4 2027, citing sustained central bank buying of approximately 190 tonnes per quarter and ongoing Middle East tensions including the U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs targets $5,400 by year-end 2026, while Deutsche Bank sees $6,000 and Wells Fargo projects a $6,100-$6,300 range.

Central bank reserves increased again in Q1 2026, with the World Gold Council reporting $193 billion in physical demand during the quarter. Gold's one-year gain stands at $1,260/oz from April 28, 2025. Retail Rolex gold models rose nearly 20% in the 12 months ending January 2026 as spot prices climbed from $2,650/oz in Q4 2024 to over $4,500, yet the Rolex Day-Date index gained only 5.7% year-over-year, indicating gold watches remain undervalued relative to melt.

Jewelers carrying gold inventory should note the $4,300 technical support level; a weekly close below that triggers a potential 26% correction to $3,400 on Fibonacci extensions.

Secondary Watch Indices Stabilize, Patek Up 1.2%, Rolex Down 0.3% in March

The WatchCharts Overall Market Index stood at 37,007 on April 28, effectively flat for March 2026 with a 0.1% gain. Patek Philippe advanced 1.2% month-over-month, while Rolex slipped 0.3%. Q4 2025 secondary prices grew 4.9% year-ending December 31, the first positive full-year performance since the correction began in mid-2022. Patek Philippe posted 12.1% year-over-year gains, while Rolex gained modestly.

European Business Magazine reported in April 2026 that secondary prices on Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet references have collapsed from 2022 peaks. Watches that commanded 100% premiums over retail in early 2022 now trade at or below authorized dealer list prices. The correction has concentrated liquidity in the Big-3 brands; independent watchmakers and second-tier Swiss marques face wider bid-ask spreads and longer holding times.

Phillips Geneva Watch Auction XXIII on May 9-10 features a Patek Philippe 2523 'South America' estimated at CHF 10 million-plus, an F.P. Journe Resonance Souscription No. 18, and a unique Rolex 'Dragon' dial estimated at CHF 500,000 to 1 million. Sotheby's Hong Kong 'Important Watches' auction April 10-24 included a Rolex 6264 'Cherry' John Player Special and vintage Patek Philippe lots; past auctions in that series averaged 78% sell-through at approximately $8.1 million total hammer.

F.P. Journe closed 2025 with a $10.75 million auction record for Francis Ford Coppola's personal watch and opened its Geneva museum in April 2026, yet secondary momentum for the brand remains uncertain. Dealer takeaways from the independent-brand segment suggest collectors are rotating capital into proven blue-chip references rather than speculative pieces.

Grey-market dealers should prepare for continued volatility in non-Big-3 inventory; auction results will clarify whether April stabilization extends into Q2 2026.

Diamond Trade Subdued, Lab-Grown Pressure Persists, Maryland Expands Precious Metals Tax Exemption

Rapaport published its weekly Price List on Thursday at 11:59pm Eastern Time with no major changes reported for the week ending May 1. Lists are available at $50 per download, and typical trade discounts range from 20% to 40% off list for VS2-SI1 one-carat rounds. The Rapaport Diamond Price Statistics Annual Report 2025, released March 11, 2026, uses the RAPI global standard index based on real-time RapNet transaction data.

Lab-grown versus mined market share shifts continued through Q1 2026, with consumer preference data showing Gen Z and Millennials increasingly choosing lab-grown for value. A warm-toned diamond campaign launched in April targeting natural engagement rings to counter lab-grown momentum, but trade sentiment remains cautious. De Beers published no Sight results in April 2026, and global rough diamond demand remains weak following the post-pandemic correction.

Auction activity was limited: a black-diamond ring sold for $122,499 on April 29, six times the high estimate. Sotheby's High Jewelry auction on May 12 will feature a 6.03-carat stone ring. LVMH hinted at a stronger North America jewelry strategy during Q1 2026 earnings discussions, following the Saks Global bankruptcy that affected hundreds of luxury brands including Burberry, LVMH, and Kering in April.

Maryland Senate Bill 309 passed unanimously (42-0 Senate, 133-0 House) and expands the precious metals sales-tax exemption effective July 1, 2026. The legislation preserves the $1,000 minimum purchase threshold. The FBI issued a warning to refineries and retailers on April 17 due to elevated gold prices, advising increased security protocols for high-value transactions.

Dealers should track Rapaport list stability week-over-week; any sudden downward adjustments would signal distress in the mined-diamond channel ahead of summer bridal season.

LVMH Signals Jewelry Expansion, JCK Las Vegas Planning Underway, Watches and Wonders Concludes

LVMH discussed transformation plans and Middle East conflict impacts during its Q1 2026 earnings call, with National Jeweler reporting the luxury conglomerate is considering a stronger jewelry presence in North America. The Saks Global bankruptcy, which hit in April, affected LVMH alongside hundreds of other brands. Tiffany & Co. promoted Nathalie Verdeille to Senior Vice President and Chief Artistic Officer on April 9, expanding her role to cover jewelry, watches, home, and accessories.

JCK Las Vegas 2026 planning is underway, though no concrete exhibitor or attendance data emerged during the week ending May 1. Forward-looking references to the June show suggest the trade is waiting to gauge spring retail momentum before committing to booth sizes and new product launches.

National Jeweler columnist Sherry Smith warned in April that jewelers misinterpreting the current market state risk deploying the wrong strategy. Rapaport noted in March that U.S. retail remained steady ahead of Mother's Day, but sentiment surveys show uneven regional performance. Randy McKenzie, a 45-year veteran with Spark Creations, died at 72; the company remembered his contributions to design and manufacturing on April 15.

Show attendance and booth traffic at JCK will provide the clearest read on mid-year wholesale demand; early RSVPs suggest exhibitor participation trails 2025 levels by low single digits.