The first quarter of 2026 closes with four stories that cannot decide if the market is healthy or in crisis. The honest answer is both, depending on which segment you're in.

Luxury Watches

Swiss watch exports posted a real recovery in February, rising 9.2% to CHF 2.168 billion. The US led at +26.8%, Japan hit +23.7%, and France surged 57.1%. Hong Kong stayed negative at -5.2% and China remained fragile at -11.0%. On the secondary side, the WatchCharts Overall Market Index is up 8.2% over the past year, with Patek Philippe at +16.2% and Tudor at +11.4%. Rolex now accounts for roughly 33% of all Swiss watch sales, and the brands with real secondary-market pricing power can be counted on two hands.

Diamonds

The split is widening fast. January lab-grown finished jewelry sales were up 23.7% in dollars, with units up 22.4% — almost entirely in bridal. Natural diamond sales were down 4.3% with units down 8.5%. De Beers has announced it will cut its sightholder list 30% starting July 1. S&P downgraded Botswana partly on structural diamond weakness. India's premier polishing hub in Surat — a $350M complex with more floor space than the Pentagon — is largely empty.

Gold & Bullion

Spot gold peaked at $5,595 on January 29, then reversed hard. As of March 27 it was at $4,433 — down 23% — with a bounce to roughly $4,553 mid-week. A strong US dollar (DXY 108.4) and Fed holding rates at 4.75–5.00% are overriding the war-driven safe-haven thesis. Goldman Sachs targets $4,600 for April. France has booked roughly €12.8 billion in gains from upgrading gold reserves, and Singapore is formalizing plans to become Asia's primary gold trading hub.

Industry News

The NRF projects 4.4% retail sales growth in 2026 to $5.6 trillion. A new 10% import tax replaced IEEPA-based duties, and the Middle East conflict has disrupted Dubai-routed diamond and bullion flows. Edge Retail Academy data shows independent jewelers grew 4.7% in 2025 revenue on 5.6% fewer units. Average tickets were up 10.9% — all gold cost pass-through, not real demand.

The Takeaway

The dealers winning in this environment are sourcing scarce goods: top-grade naturals, steel sport Rolexes, 2ct-and-larger fancy shapes. Watches and Wonders Geneva is in April. JCK Las Vegas is late May/early June.