Bain calls the floor on lab-grown

Bain & Company's most recent industry guidance, circulated in the trade press through April and May, projects lab-grown diamond polished prices to decline 5 to 8 percent annually going forward. That is a substantively different posture than the prior three years. From 2020 through 2025, lab-grown one-carat polished prices fell roughly 74 percent in cumulative terms, with the steepest annual declines clustered in 2022 and 2023. Industry pricing references now place the lab-grown one-carat at roughly $750 to $1,000, against natural one-carat polished references closer to $4,200, according to multiple wholesale-side sources cited in the trade press over the past quarter.

The implication for jewelers is concrete. The price gap between lab-grown and natural at one carat has stabilized at roughly four to five times. That ratio is no longer compressing the way it did between 2022 and 2024, when the gap widened nearly every quarter. Retailers who set lab-grown markups on a moving floor in 2023 are now setting them on a relatively stable floor. Bain's view that we have passed the steepest part of the decline curve, repeated through April industry coverage, is now reflected in the way larger US chains are guiding their merchandising teams ahead of JCK and Couture in late May.

Rapaport April: melee firmed, one-carat softened

The April RapNet Diamond Price Index split cleanly. RAPI for the 0.30-carat band rose 2.6 percent for the month. The 0.50-carat band rose 1.3 percent. The one-carat band fell 1.4 percent. The pattern matches anecdotal trade reporting through April and into the first two weeks of May: melee and small-stone supply tightened, while one-carat polished saw continued buyer hesitation, particularly in the H to J color and SI clarity tiers that drove the consumer-facing solitaire market through 2024. The split is also consistent with the bridal-segment migration toward smaller center stones supplemented by larger melee accents, which has been a documented merchandising shift across signet-tier retailers over the past four quarters.

De Beers Sight 4 read flat as sightholders wait on Anglo

De Beers held Sight 4 from April 27 through April 30. Sightholder feedback, as documented by Edahn Golan and other rough-market analysts in the days that followed, described the event as dull and stagnant. Many sightholders deferred allocations to future sights, which De Beers has continued to permit without penalty given the slow market. Q1 2026 rough sales totaled $648 million from 7.7 million carats (6.4 million on a consolidated basis) across the two completed sights of the quarter. A third sight that began in March did not close before quarter-end and will be reported with Anglo American's Q2 production release on July 23.

Anglo American CEO Duncan Wanblad has described the divestment process as in the advanced stages of discussions with a select group of interested parties, all strategic. Wanblad has identified the Government of Botswana as crucial to determining the end point. As of the most recent April commentary, no firm completion date had been announced. Sightholders are openly factoring this uncertainty into how aggressively they take rough at posted prices. The full cross-asset wrap of the week is here.

What this means for jewelers heading into JCK

Three operational reads. First, retailers buying for the late-May Las Vegas shows should expect natural-side suppliers to hold firm on melee and small-stone pricing through the show, given the tightening signaled by the RAPI April release. Second, one-carat natural polished should remain available at favorable terms, particularly in the lower color and clarity tiers, given softness on the demand side. Third, lab-grown wholesale partners are increasingly willing to commit to fixed-price contracts spanning multiple quarters, a structural shift consistent with the Bain pricing-stability thesis.

Couture at the Wynn and JCK Las Vegas at the Venetian Expo run May 29 through June 1. The full retail-side context, including Signet's brand consolidation and the Saks Global layoffs that will shape vendor terms heading into the show, is in the industry breakdown here. The trade question worth carrying into Las Vegas: if Anglo's divestment process produces a buyer announcement during or immediately after JCK, does sightholder sentiment turn fast enough to lift Sight 5 in late May or early June?