The diamond market has split into two businesses running at different speeds in different directions — and the gap widened again this week.

The January Numbers Say It All

Lab-grown finished diamond jewelry sales rose 23.7% in January, with units up 22.4%. Nearly all of that growth was in bridal. Natural diamond sales fell 4.3%, and units dropped 8.5%. Fewer transactions at higher average ticket, driven not by quality demand but by gold cost pass-through.

De Beers Is Restructuring From the Top

De Beers announced it will reduce its sightholder list by 30% for the contract period beginning July 1, 2026. Anglo American took a major impairment on its De Beers stake, cut 2026 production guidance, and acknowledged weak demand and high inventories remain a persistent drag. S&P downgraded Botswana partly because of structural weakness in natural diamonds and softer Chinese consumption.

Alrosa is moving the other direction: reporting 6–9% rough price increases in the 2–10ct range since January 1. The Diavik mine in Canada ended production after 23 years, permanently removing supply from the pipeline.

Surat: A $350M Symbol of Midstream Pain

Bloomberg's March 18 report: the Surat Diamond Bourse, a $350 million complex built to house thousands of traders, is sitting largely empty. Nine out of ten diamonds pass through Surat before reaching consumers. But the midstream is being compressed simultaneously — by lab-grown from below and by supply consolidation from above.

Where Natural Diamonds Are Still Working

Rapaport's March 26 market comment identifies where business is happening: 2ct-and-larger investment-grade naturals are in consistent demand. Long fancy shapes — Marquise, Oval, long Radiant — are outperforming rounds in the 2ct-and-up range. Marquise cuts are scarce and commanding premiums. GIA-graded fancy shapes with strong proportions are actively sought. Goods under 0.50ct and Princess cuts are slow.

The Takeaway

Natural diamonds defend margin and prestige — but only in investment-grade categories with the right paper. Lab-grown owns the volume growth, especially bridal under $3,000. Dealers trying to compete in both lanes without a clear pricing thesis for each are getting squeezed from both sides.