The NRF projects 4.4% retail sales growth in 2026, pushing total US retail to $5.6 trillion. But for jewelers and watch dealers, the details matter more than the headline.

The 2025 Hidden Scorecard

Edge Retail Academy aggregated data from independent jewelers across the US: gross sales up 4.7%, gross profit up 5.5%. But units sold were down 5.6%, and the average retail sale was up 10.9%. The growth was entirely price-driven — almost all traceable to higher gold costs passed through to retail. Dealers sold fewer pieces at higher prices and called it a good year.

That works until it doesn't. Price-driven revenue without unit volume underneath it is fragile. When customers hit resistance, revenue can reverse without warning.

Tariffs and Trade Route Disruption

A new 10% import tax is now in effect after the end of IEEPA-based tariffs, with 15% possible in coming months. The Middle East conflict has disrupted Indian gem and jewelry exports, and Dubai — a critical hub for diamond routing and bullion flows — is experiencing shipping and settlement delays. Landed cost, replenishment timing, and margin planning are all less predictable than 90 days ago.

The Workforce Gap Is Not Going Away

An April 2 webinar will address the bench jeweler shortage that has become one of the trade's most serious structural problems. Skilled setters, goldsmiths, and repair technicians are retiring faster than they're being replaced. Dealers who invest in training pipelines now will have an operational advantage that compounds over the next decade.

Rob Bates Leaves JCK After 28 Years

After 28 years as news director at JCK, veteran journalist Rob Bates is leaving to launch The Jewelry Wire on Substack. For anyone in the diamond trade who values analysis not filtered through advertiser relationships, this is worth following.

Looking Ahead: JCK Las Vegas

JCK Las Vegas is scheduled for late May/early June — the single most important annual convergence for the US-facing trade. Watches and Wonders Geneva in April will be the first major signal for where secondary watch prices move in H2.

The Takeaway

The jewelry trade in 2026 is a margin-management year, not a pure demand year. Dealers with diversified revenue legs — repair, scrap buying, custom, estate — will outperform those relying solely on new fine jewelry sales at elevated gold costs.

What the Revenue-Unit Gap Means for Independent Jewelers

The 4.7% revenue growth paired with a 5.6% decline in units sold is not just a statistical curiosity — it signals a structural shift in how jewelry is being bought and sold in America. Average transaction values rose 10.9%, which means customers are spending more per visit but visiting less often. For independent jewelers, this creates a paradox: the business looks healthy on paper while foot traffic erodes underneath.

The tariff situation compounds the challenge. With Indian-made jewelry effectively facing a 15.5% U.S. tariff and India's gem and jewelry exports to the United States dropping 45.49% year over year, sourcing costs are rising at the same time that unit demand is falling. Dealers who relied on Indian-origin inventory for their bread-and-butter price points are now caught between margin compression and customer sticker shock.

The workforce gap adds another layer. The April 2 webinar on skilled labor shortages highlights a problem the industry has been slow to address: the people who actually make, set, and repair jewelry are aging out faster than they are being replaced. If you cannot staff the bench, you cannot deliver custom work — and custom work is where the highest margins live.